Monthly Inflow Forecasting of Three Multi-Purpose Reservoirs

The need for inflow discharge forecasts is the first step in process of integrating water management. To overcome this problem, a forecasting analysis system needed. This paper adopts seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, SARIMA. method was chosen and then applied to data Wonorejo Reservoir obtain best model. Determination model through performance measures using minimum Mean Square Error (MSE). has an MSE 11.79 on 18 years from 2003 2020. forecast evaluated Bendo Sampean Reservoir. difference between others that one used three different multi-purpose reservoirs obtains feasible results each reservoir. Therefore, authors conclude SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 can be Reservoir, East Java Province, Indonesia. prediction satisfactory next five years, four years. analyze optimization reservoir management reduce risk shortages. Further research carried out achieve extreme values forecasting.